Listen to the polls: Trump will lose the 2020 election

Lischa Mears, Reporter

Election Day is approaching swiftly and the crystal ball of statistics forecasts that the Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden will win the 2020 presidential election.

According to BBC News, Biden is currently leading the national polls by 51% with President Trump trailing behind at 43%. 

While national polls serve as an efficient representation of the overall popularity of a candidate, within the country, national polls do not solely illustrate the result of the presidential election.  

This is because the United States utilizes an electoral college system to elect the president.  

The electoral college pertains to the system in which each state is provided with a number of votes based on the number of members that are assigned to Congress. This system consists of 538 total electoral college votes, and a candidate needs 270 to win. 

According to an analysis model from The Economist, that combines both state and national polls with economic measures, Biden has a 95% chance of winning the electoral college as opposed to Trump with a 5% chance. 

These statistics highlight the importance for a candidate to win over battleground states to achieve the 270 electoral college votes to win. 

 Battleground states are the states within the country that contain a higher availability of electoral college votes that can be acquired by a candidate. These states are prioritized for campaigns in an attempt for candidates to gain a greater amount of electoral college votes. 

According to BBC News, Biden is currently leading the battleground states with the greatest leads in the states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. 

Although Trump’s 2016 win was largely impacted by his success in leading the battleground states, against Hillary Clinton, the current lead of Biden in these states indicate that Trump has a significantly lower chance of being reelected. 

In addition to these statistics, Allan Lichtman, an American historian who correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 win, now agrees with others in the forecast that Trump will lose. 

According to Horus Alas, from U.S. News, Lichtman established 13 keys in a collaboration with the late Russian earthquake expert, Vladimir Keilis-Borok, to determine who would win in future presidential elections. 

In comparison to the terms of an earthquake, this system of prediction forecasts that a candidate will win based on stability and opposingly lose an election if there is a lack of stability. 

“While in 2019 Lichtman’s keys predicted a Trump win, the coronavirus pandemic’s destruction of the long and short-term economy as well as this summer’s protests against racial injustice have put him over the threshold for an impending loss,” wrote Horus Alas. 

This means that Lichtman currently predicts that Trump will lose the election due to the keys turning against the governing party and the lack of stability in Trump’s recent history in office. 

“Still, Trump has a meaningful chance, per our forecast-a little worse than the chances of rolling a 1 on a six-sided die and a little better than the chances that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles,” wrote Nate Silver from FiveThirtyEight. 

Some may predict that Trump will win the election due to the factors of this particular chance, the ongoing changes in the battleground states, and the state of his past groundbreaking election win in 2016. However, the forementioned statistics illustrate that this is not the case. 

According to the forecast of FiveThirtyEight, “President Trump is running out of time to mount a comeback and close the gap Biden has opened in both national and state polls.” 

While Trump may still have a chance to win the election, the statistics present that he will be unable to do so in the remaining time before Election Day. Given the crystal ball of statistics, Biden will win the presidential election, and Trump will lose reelection.